2024 Presidential Election Prospects

 

               It’s a little early to be handicapping the 2024 presidential election, but there are some things that we can reliably expect.  Assuming the race is between any Democrat and any Republican, California is going to vote for the Democrat and Idaho is going to vote for the Republican.  If they don’t, then – wow!  Something really unexpected will have happened.  Given the state-by-state results of the 2020 Biden-Trump race and polls showing little change in the (un)favorability of both candidates, we can narrow down the swing states to seven: Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, and Michigan.  These seven are the only states where the difference between the candidates’ 2020 votes are less than 3%.  On rare occasions, a state's results will change more than that in the course of four years, but it's rare, and in 2024, we're looking at a rematch of candidates.

               One might reasonably eliminate Michigan and North Carolina from the list of swing states though.  If Trump is able to win Michigan, it is likely he’ll win enough other swing states to secure a victory.  A Trump victory in Michigan probably would require a Republican wave election.  The reverse is likely to be true if Biden is able to win North Carolina.  It would mean a Democratic wave election, but more on this below. 

Realistically, the electoral math gives us only five true swing states:  Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada.  Setting aside these states, Biden can count on 241 Electoral College votes and Trump can count on 235.  Biden will need 29 more to get to 270 and win reelection.  Trump will need 34 more to get to 269 and tie the vote.  With a tied vote, the final result will be determined by a majority of state legislatures, giving Trump the victory. 

So, what are the paths to victory for Biden and Trump?  Simply put:

Biden needs: [PA & (GA v AZ v WI)] v (GA & 2 swing states).

Trump needs: (PA & GA) v (PA & 2 swing states) v (GA & AZ & WI).

The current Electoral College math is in Biden’s favor, but each of these states was extremely close in 2020.  With so much time until Election Day, anything can happen in any of those states.  Much will depend on the local politics in each swing state.  Let’s turn to that.

NEVADA

Biden’s best chance for winning a swing state is Nevada and it’s a very good chance.  Despite its vast expanse of uninhabited land, Nevada’s population is extremely urban which favors Democrats.  In 2020, 69% of the voters lived in Clark County, home of Las Vegas.  Another 8% lived in Reno and in towns near Lake Tahoe.  Biden won Clark County by 90,822 votes and won the state by 33,596 votes.  Clearly, Biden’s victory was due to his performance in the Las Vegas metro area.

Historically, Nevada looks good for the Democrats.  They have won all the statewide races since 2016, except for the Attorney General race in 2018 which they lost by a mere 0.66%, and the 2022 gubernatorial race which they lost by 1.5%.  Their record in statewide races against Republicans is 8-2.  Of course, the best news for the Democrats is that Trump lost in both 2016 and 2020 by 2.42% and 2.39% respectively.

The 2022 race should give the Democrats pause, though.  Not only did the Republicans win the gubernatorial race, but their House candidate in District 1 (essentially Las Vegas) did much better than usual.  He still lost, but he did well enough to flip the aggregate votes in the House races to the Republicans.  Republican House candidates beat Democratic House candidates by 3.49%. 

If Biden can maintain even half of his 2020 advantage in Clark County, he'll almost certainly win Nevada.  Unfortunately for Biden it will do little to reduce the paths that lead to a Trump victory.  While Nevada might come into play, because it provides only six Electoral College votes, it just isn't terribly important. 

PENNSYLVANIA

               Biden’s second-best chance is Pennsylvania.  Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016 by a mere 0.75%, but he was defeated by Biden in 2020 by 1.17%. That tells you how close this election could be.  A couple things give Biden a slight edge in Pennsylvania. Voters soundly rejected Trump-endorsed candidates in 2022.  Mehmet Oz lost his bid for the Senate by 5.03% and Doug Mastriano lost his bid for governor by a whopping 15.4%.  Like in Nevada, Democrats have an 8-2 record in Pennsylvania statewide races since 2016 (Trump and Sen. Pat Toomey by 1.5%, both in 2016).  Unlike Nevada, Pennsylvania Republicans have a better record in voting for House candidates.  Pennsylvania seems to swing back and forth in the aggregate vote for Republican and Democratic House candidates.   

               Republicans also can take some comfort in a report in Politico that says many people in the State Party – and possibly the Biden campaign – are critical of the performance of the chair of the State Party, but thus far, I find no substantiation of the report which is based on unnamed sources.

The Pennsylvania House of Representatives is dead even right now.  All of the House members will be up for election in 2024.  That could make abortion access an important issue in the state and help Biden.  We’ll also get a clue about the importance of abortion access to Pennsylvania voters this November, when they vote in a special election for a Supreme Court judge.

If Biden wins Pennsylvania, Trump will need to win Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin.  If Trump wins Pennsylvania, Biden will need to win Georgia and any two swing states. 

GEORGIA

               Here’s another squeaker.  Trump beat Hillary Clinton by 5.13% in 2016 and lost to Biden by only 0.24% (11,779 votes).  The Republicans out-polled the Democrats in statewide races 7-4, and none of the Democratic wins were by more than 2.81%.  The 2.81% win was against Hershel Walker, possibly the most unqualified candidate running for national office that year.  Additionally, Republican House candidates consistently out-perform Democratic House candidates statewide. 

Democrats should not let themselves become overconfident because of Biden’s success in 2020 and their recent narrow victories in Senate races by Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock.  What should give them some solace is that Governor Kemp, Secretary of State Brad Raffensberger, then-Lt. Governor Geoff Duncan, and Attorney General Christopher Carr (all popular Republicans) have testified against Trump before the grand jury in Trump’s Fulton County RICO trial.  We can expect them to be called to testify again at the trial.  A lot will depend on the RICO trial and how it’s covered in the Georgia press.

Democrats can also find comfort in that the GOP in Georgia appears to be quite divided.  Some of its past officers are actually defendants in Trump’s RICO trial.  Another is identifiable as an unindicted co-conspirator.  As a result, Trump is not likely to get coordinated support from the Georgia Republican political class, and when a substantial portion of prominent Republicans say that moderates and independents aren’t going to vote for Trump, it just might become a self-fulfilling prophecy.  

               If Biden wins Georgia, Trump will need to win Pennsylvania and two swing states.  If Trump wins Georgia Biden will need to win Pennsylvania and either Arizona or Wisconsin.

ARIZONA

               Arizona is a completely crazy political mess.  The statewide races are pretty evenly split, but slightly favoring Democrats 6-4-1.  (The 2022 Attorney General race was decided for the Democrat by 280 votes!  For present purposes, I consider that a tie.)  Moreover, a lot of Arizona voters often opt for third party or independent candidates.  If Sen. Krysten Sinema decides to run as an independent, there’s no telling how she will affect the presidential race.  

               A couple things might help the Democrats.  The Republican State Party is a big part of Arizona’s crazy political mess.  Earlier this year, Republican first-term State House Member Liz Harris was expelled from her seat by a 2/3 majority for knowingly arranging for the false and potentially libelous testimony of a hearing witness.  In response, the pro-Trump/Kari Lake faction of the Party censured 18 Republican House members who voted for Harris’s expulsion.  They even censured two more who voted against expulsion, but acknowledged that Harris violated the House’s ethics rules.  The pro-Trump faction also censured the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors for not reinstating Harris.  There may be no Republican State party in the country so divided as in Arizona.

               Another thing that might tip the balance in favor of the Democrats is a ballot measure that pro-abortion access groups are looking to put on the ballot.  If they succeed – and I know of no reason they won’t – it will be a lot easier to get unenthusiastic Democratic voters out to vote.  It might just be what tips the balance to Biden.  Still, Arizona’s politics are complicated beyond description, so anything could happen.  

If Biden Arizona, his chances of winning are of course improved, but not by much. The same is true for Trump.  Pennsylvania and Georgia are the big players in the Electoral math.

WISCONSIN

While not completely insane like Arizona, Wisconsin is razor, razor close. Together, the last two presidential races in Wisconsin were closer than anywhere else in the country.  Trump beat Hillary Clinton by a mere 0.77%, but then Biden beat Trump by even less: 0.36%.  The Democrats do have a 7-3 record in statewide races.  Two of the Republican wins are attributable to just one politician, Sen. Ron Johnson who won his last race by just 1.01%.  That bodes well for the Democrats.  Like Pennsylvania, the aggregate vote for Republican and Democratic House candidates swings back and forth, so it’s hard to gauge just how much of an advantage anyone might have there. 

Republicans are having difficulty recruiting a candidate to challenge the popular Sen. Tammy Baldwin in 2024.  Their two top potential candidates have decided not to run.  Other potential candidates are relatively unknown, with the exception of former Milwaukee County Sheriff and Trump supporter David Clark.  Clark has taken no steps toward running.  Without a strong, well-funded Republican Senate candidate on the ballot, Trump will be on his own to get out the Republican vote.

As elsewhere, the abortion access issue might help Democrats in Wisconsin.  Wisconsinites came out strong in an April special election for a progressive Supreme Court candidate.  Janet Protasiewicz ran primarily on the promise to protect abortion access.  She won by 11%.  Only Sen. Baldwin in 2018 racked up a score like that.  While not a high-profile race, Protasiewicz’s victory raises the Democrat’s statewide record to 8-3 and could be a harbinger of the future.

Wisconsin was historically part of the Democrat’s “blue wall.”  Whether Trump’s 2016 victory and his near miss in 2020 have changed that remains to be seen; but like Arizona, there’s no telling what will happen in Wisconsin – at least for now. 

As with Arizona, winning Wisconsin is helpful for either Biden or Trump, but not that much.  Keep your eyes on Pennsylvania and Georgia.

 NORTH CAROLINA

               I began this review with the assumption that North Carolina is certainly enough a Republican state as to be not included in any possible Biden path to victory.  I don’t seriously doubt that, but the methods I am using to determine swing states and to assess the two candidates’ chances yields a story more favorable to Biden.  Trump beat Biden by 1.34% which on my criterion would make North Carolina a swing state.  Furthermore, the Democrats’ record for winning statewide races is 6-4, which should give Biden some hope. 

A closer look, however, reveals that all of the statewide Democratic victories are for State-level offices (Governor, Secretary of State, and Attorney General), and all of the victories for the Republicans are for National-level offices (Senate and President). Additionally, Republican House candidates routinely out-perform Democratic House candidates by sizeable amounts.  It seems North Carolina voters like to put Democrats in charge of the State and send Republicans off to Washington.  I’m keeping North Carolina in the Trump column – at least for now.

MICHIGAN

               Considering Michigan as a swing state is the biggest stretch of all.  It’s probably as safe for Biden as Florida is safe for Trump.  Trump eked out a win in Michigan with 0.2% in 2016 and then lost to Biden by 2.78%.  The Democrats’ winning record in statewide races is 9-1.  Trump’s 2016 super-narrow victory was the only Republican victory.  Republican House candidates did out-perform Democratic candidates by 3.56% in 2016, but they never again beat the Democratic House candidates.  Finally, in 2022, Democratic Gov. Whitmer won her race by 10.6%, Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson won her race by 14%, and Democratic Attorney General Dana Nessel won her race by 8.9%. 

To further aggravate matters, the Republican State Party is suffering a deep ideological division (a common theme in swing states) and a severe lack of funding.  The Party’s chair is Kristina Karamo, an outspoken Trump supporter who lost the 2022 race for Secretary of State by 14%.  Karamo defeated Matthew DePerno to become the Party’s chair.  DePerno lost his 2022 race for Attorney General by 8.9% and has been criminally charged with due possession of a voting machine, willfully damaging a voting machine, and conspiracy to gain unauthorized access to a computer or computer system.  They represent two opposing wings of the Party.  At least two physical fights have broken out between Party officials.  

Republican donors have begun to give money to Michigan’s Republican House candidates through channels not under control of the State Party, which is so broke it closed its office and is operating out of a condominium unit.

The Michigan segment of the “blue wall” seems about as sturdy as ever.

CONCLUSIONS?

               Biden’s Electoral College advantage in the non-swing states gives him a head start, but for now Pennsylvania and Georgia look to be the where the race will be decided.  There’s a lot about the swing states that should give the Democrats hope.  In particular, the Republican State parties are often divided on ideological grounds and abortion access could continue to be a salient issue, but all of the swing states are extremely competitive with a lot of time left before Election Day.  Other issues could easily capture the attention of voters.  Inflation might increase again, the country might slip into a recession, the Russian war in Ukraine might disrupt geopolitics and the global economy, Trump’s legal troubles might take unexpected turns, issues related to immigration could fuel a nativist uprising, or other social issues could dominate the political discourse in ways that would change voter choices.   

What seems like an advantage now, might easily disappear overnight.  What isn’t likely to change is the importance of Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada – or roughly 15% of our country’s population who will determine who our next president will be.  I guess that’s American-style democracy for you.